Christensen and Raynor in their book The Innovator’s Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth at page 49, have a three set of questions to determine whether the idea can become a new-market disruption:

First set, tests the new market potential, the answers must be positive:

• Is there a large population of people who historically have not had the money, equipment, or skill to do things for themselves, and as a result have gone without it altogether or have needed to pay someone with more expertise to do it for them?
• To use the product or service, do customers need to go to an inconvenient, centralized location

Second set, explores the potential for low-end disruption:

• Are there customers at the low end of the market who would be happy to purchase a product with less (but good enough) performance if they could get it at a lower price?
• Can we create a business model that enables us to earn atttractive profits at the discount price required to win the business of these overserved customers at a lower price?

Third set, the litmus test, answer affirmatively:

• Is the innovation disruptive to all of the significant incumbent firms in the industry? If it appears to be sustaining to one or more significant players in the industry, then the odds will be stacked in that firm’s favor, and the entrant is unlikely to win.

Other works from Christensen on innovation can be found in my previous posts, Clayton Christensen on business model innovations and Asking the wrong questions kill ideas.